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603768.SS$11.60-0.68%
Fair $11.60+0.0%

603768.SS

Changqing Machinery Company Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShanghai

$11.60

-0.08 (-0.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.60Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 16/F
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-321.6M · quality 62.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

16/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -9.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603768.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Changqing Machinery Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

23.8x

↑

ROE

-9.4%

↓

Gross Margin

11.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.89

↑
52-Week Range$12
$10$14

TradingView lightweight chart

603768.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.60Periodo -50.6%
Fair value: $11.60

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-9.1%

FCF / Net income

1.57x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.53B · net income $-205.1M · FCF $-321.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.9%-3.1% pts

Operating margin

1.4%-5.5% pts

Net margin

-5.8%-8.9% pts

FCF margin

-9.1%+1.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.53B$3.53B$3.41B$3.25B$3.16B
Net Income$-205.1M$-205.1M$68.2M$131.6M$96.5M
EBITDA$177.6M$177.6M$382.2M$442.6M$362.3M
EPS-0.86-0.860.300.650.47
Gross Margin11.9%11.9%17.0%14.9%15.0%
Operating Margin1.4%1.4%7.6%7.0%6.9%
Net Margin-5.8%-5.8%2.0%4.1%3.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.890.890.750.780.59
Current Ratio0.840.84———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-321.6M$-321.6M$-264.8M$-400.1M$-319.6M
Returns
ROE-9.4%-9.4%2.8%6.6%5.1%
Valuation
P/E——37.4727.0233.04
EV/EBITDA23.8423.849.7810.7811.18
P/B1.261.261.101.791.68
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.4%3.4%4.9%2.7%—
EPS Growth-386.7%-386.7%-53.8%38.3%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.8%

Total return

-3.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.30 → -0.86

Residual

-4.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.