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603788.SS$16.88+2.68%
Fair $16.88+0.0%

603788.SS

Ningbo Gaofa Automotive Control System Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShanghai

$16.88

+0.44 (+2.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $16.88Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-24.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 603788.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Ningbo Gaofa Automotive Control System Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.8B

P/E

17.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.2x

↑

ROE

10.2%

↑

Gross Margin

23.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$17
$14$19

TradingView lightweight chart

603788.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $16.88Periodo +59.7%
Fair value: $16.88

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+15.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.8%

FCF / Net income

0.13x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.58B · net income $216.2M · FCF $28.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.9%+0.7% pts

Operating margin

14.7%+3.9% pts

Net margin

13.7%+2.6% pts

FCF margin

1.8%+6.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.58B$1.58B$1.46B$1.26B$1.04B
Net Income$216.2M$216.2M$190.6M$162.6M$114.9M
EBITDA$291.0M$291.0M$248.4M$211.9M$167.6M
EPS0.970.970.850.730.52
Gross Margin23.9%23.9%22.4%22.8%23.2%
Operating Margin14.7%14.7%13.6%13.1%10.8%
Net Margin13.7%13.7%13.0%12.9%11.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.020.01—
Current Ratio3.563.56———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$28.9M$28.9M$-24.0M$-39.2M$-49.9M
Returns
ROE10.2%10.2%9.2%8.1%5.9%
Valuation
P/E17.4017.4015.2219.9621.17
EV/EBITDA12.2212.2211.4812.6011.11
P/B1.771.771.401.611.24
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.3%8.3%15.6%21.8%—
EPS Growth14.1%14.1%16.4%40.4%—
Dividend Yield4.9%4.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

15.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.50

Spread vs growth

-1.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

13.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.81

Spread vs growth

0.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.92

Spread vs growth

2.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.3%

Total return

+6.3%

Start / end P/E

19.6x → 17.4x

EPS bridge

0.85 → 0.97

Residual

-1.6%

EPS growth+14.1%
Multiple rerating-11.2%
Dividend+4.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.