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603815.SS$7.11-0.28%
Fair $7.11+0.0%

603815.SS

Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShanghai

$7.11

-0.02 (-0.28%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.11Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 14/F
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-209.4M · quality 38.3/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

14/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -51.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603815.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.4B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-51.7%

↓

Gross Margin

10.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.17

↑
52-Week Range$7
$6$15

TradingView lightweight chart

603815.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.110Periodo -3.9%
Fair value: $7.110

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-16.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-9.7%

FCF / Net income

0.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.85B · net income $-783.2M · FCF $-375.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

10.0%+2.2% pts

Operating margin

6.5%+0.9% pts

Net margin

-20.4%-23.1% pts

FCF margin

-9.7%-10.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.85B$3.85B$4.17B$4.81B$6.50B
Net Income$-783.2M$-783.2M$130.2M$173.6M$181.6M
EBITDA$-742.4M$-742.4M$262.4M$320.3M$336.3M
EPS-1.27-1.270.210.280.29
Gross Margin10.0%10.0%11.3%10.8%7.8%
Operating Margin6.5%6.5%7.7%7.5%5.6%
Net Margin-20.4%-20.4%3.1%3.6%2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.171.170.690.780.62
Current Ratio0.910.91———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-375.0M$-375.0M$-209.4M$-97.1M$45.3M
Returns
ROE-51.7%-51.7%5.5%7.6%8.4%
Valuation
P/E——25.3329.3226.97
EV/EBITDA——15.4817.5414.34
P/B2.892.891.402.232.25
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.8%-7.8%-13.3%-25.9%—
EPS Growth-704.8%-704.8%-25.0%-3.4%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -11.6%

Total return

-11.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.21 → -1.27

Residual

-12.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.