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603848.SS$14.78+2.14%
Fair $14.78+0.0%

603848.SS

Guangdong Hotata Technology Group Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesShanghai

$14.78

+0.31 (+2.14%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.78Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $96.6M · quality 48.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603848.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong Hotata Technology Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.9B

P/E

27.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

21.3x

↑

ROE

7.9%

↑

Gross Margin

48.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$15
$14$34

TradingView lightweight chart

603848.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.78Periodo -39.3%
Fair value: $14.78

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

6.3%

FCF / Net income

0.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.54B · net income $203.2M · FCF $96.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

48.8%+2.4% pts

Operating margin

15.5%-4.4% pts

Net margin

13.2%-2.7% pts

FCF margin

6.3%+102.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.54B$1.54B$1.56B$1.69B$1.38B
Net Income$203.2M$203.2M$248.5M$327.3M$218.6M
EBITDA$275.8M$275.8M$359.9M$415.3M$275.0M
EPS0.510.510.620.820.55
Gross Margin48.8%48.8%48.0%50.8%46.4%
Operating Margin15.5%15.5%18.3%24.3%19.8%
Net Margin13.2%13.2%16.0%19.4%15.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.050.000.02
Current Ratio2.612.61———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$96.6M$96.6M$59.7M$394.9M$-1.34B
Returns
ROE7.9%7.9%10.2%14.3%10.7%
Valuation
P/E27.8927.8922.8519.2625.64
EV/EBITDA21.3221.3215.3614.2720.07
P/B2.302.302.332.742.74
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.9%-0.9%-7.8%22.2%—
EPS Growth-17.7%-17.7%-24.4%49.1%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.31

Spread vs growth

-54.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.59

Spread vs growth

-43.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.56

Spread vs growth

-35.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.7%

Total return

-3.7%

Start / end P/E

25.1x → 29.0x

EPS bridge

0.62 → 0.51

Residual

-2.7%

EPS growth-17.7%
Multiple rerating+15.4%
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.