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603886.SS$10.87-2.25%
Fair $10.87+0.0%

603886.SS

Ganso Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Grocery StoresShanghai

$10.87

-0.25 (-2.25%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.87Fund rank 38/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 3/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $308.5M · quality 84.0/100

Data gap 38/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 81/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603886.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Ganso Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.6B

P/E

27.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.4x

↓

ROE

9.0%

↑

Gross Margin

62.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.21

↓
52-Week Range$11
$10$15

TradingView lightweight chart

603886.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.87Periodo -32.4%
Fair value: $10.87

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.0%

FCF CAGR

-13.4%

FCF margin

14.8%

FCF / Net income

2.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.08B · net income $139.6M · FCF $308.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

62.0%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

9.5%-5.0% pts

Net margin

6.7%-3.6% pts

FCF margin

14.8%-3.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.08B$2.08B$2.31B$2.66B$2.59B
Net Income$139.6M$139.6M$248.8M$276.3M$266.4M
EBITDA$418.3M$418.3M$563.6M$607.4M$596.6M
EPS0.580.581.041.151.11
Gross Margin62.0%62.0%63.3%62.1%60.1%
Operating Margin9.5%9.5%15.0%13.9%14.5%
Net Margin6.7%6.7%10.8%10.4%10.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.210.210.200.200.22
Current Ratio1.421.42———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$308.5M$308.5M$269.7M$423.9M$475.6M
Returns
ROE9.0%9.0%15.0%16.6%16.4%
Valuation
P/E27.8727.8713.2016.0216.85
EV/EBITDA5.425.425.477.317.29
P/B1.681.681.982.672.77
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-10.1%-10.1%-13.0%2.8%—
EPS Growth-44.2%-44.2%-9.6%3.6%—
Dividend Yield5.4%5.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

18.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.96

Spread vs growth

-62.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

15.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.17

Spread vs growth

-59.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.88

Spread vs growth

-56.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -20.0%

Total return

-20.0%

Start / end P/E

14.0x → 18.7x

EPS bridge

1.04 → 0.58

Residual

-14.9%

EPS growth-44.2%
Multiple rerating+33.7%
Dividend+5.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.