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603898.SS$12.67+1.20%
Fair $12.67+0.0%

603898.SS

Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesShanghai

$12.67

+0.15 (+1.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.67Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $335.5M · quality 54.7/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603898.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.9B

P/E

253.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.2x

↑

ROE

0.5%

↓

Gross Margin

31.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$13
$9$18

TradingView lightweight chart

603898.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.67Periodo +34.9%
Fair value: $12.67

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-16.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-7.6%

FCF / Net income

-8.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.67B · net income $14.7M · FCF $-126.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

31.0%-4.2% pts

Operating margin

2.9%-11.0% pts

Net margin

0.9%-14.4% pts

FCF margin

-7.6%-13.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.67B$1.67B$1.91B$2.26B$2.82B
Net Income$14.7M$14.7M$80.5M$217.2M$431.1M
EBITDA$173.0M$173.0M$249.5M$420.8M$726.7M
EPS0.050.050.260.701.16
Gross Margin31.0%31.0%33.4%34.6%35.2%
Operating Margin2.9%2.9%5.6%11.0%13.9%
Net Margin0.9%0.9%4.2%9.6%15.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.210.230.23
Current Ratio2.372.37———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-126.2M$-126.2M$335.5M$425.4M$158.5M
Returns
ROE0.5%0.5%2.6%7.0%14.2%
Valuation
P/E253.40253.4034.0415.9010.34
EV/EBITDA20.2520.2511.668.796.76
P/B1.201.200.881.111.46
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-12.8%-12.8%-15.7%-19.8%—
EPS Growth-80.8%-80.8%-62.9%-39.7%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

182.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.12

Spread vs growth

-263.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

93.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.36

Spread vs growth

-174.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

45.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.19

Spread vs growth

-126.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.3%

Total return

+16.3%

Start / end P/E

42.1x → 253.4x

EPS bridge

0.26 → 0.05

Residual

-405.2%

EPS growth-80.8%
Multiple rerating+501.7%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-405.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.