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603915.SS$15.64-4.28%
Fair $15.64+0.0%

603915.SS

Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShanghai

$15.64

-0.70 (-4.28%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.64Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $447.6M · quality 71.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 62/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 603915.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.4B

P/E

42.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.8x

↑

ROE

6.3%

↑

Gross Margin

20.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$16
$13$21

TradingView lightweight chart

603915.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.66Periodo -5.1%
Fair value: $15.64

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.6%

FCF CAGR

+20.2%

FCF margin

8.1%

FCF / Net income

0.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.65B · net income $235.0M · FCF $214.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.6%-6.2% pts

Operating margin

10.0%-5.4% pts

Net margin

8.9%-6.5% pts

FCF margin

8.1%+3.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.65B$2.65B$2.59B$2.66B$2.70B
Net Income$235.0M$235.0M$293.5M$395.5M$413.9M
EBITDA$426.2M$426.2M$503.6M$590.2M$585.4M
EPS0.360.360.450.600.63
Gross Margin20.6%20.6%21.1%25.7%26.7%
Operating Margin10.0%10.0%11.4%15.5%15.4%
Net Margin8.9%8.9%11.3%14.9%15.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio2.562.56———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$214.7M$214.7M$527.1M$447.6M$123.5M
Returns
ROE6.3%6.3%8.0%11.0%12.7%
Valuation
P/E42.2742.2723.6925.1033.08
EV/EBITDA20.7920.7910.0715.6521.78
P/B2.732.731.902.764.19
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.2%2.2%-2.7%-1.3%—
EPS Growth-20.0%-20.0%-25.0%-4.8%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

56.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.39

Spread vs growth

-76.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

36.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.68

Spread vs growth

-56.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.70

Spread vs growth

-42.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.3%

Total return

-10.3%

Start / end P/E

39.5x → 43.5x

EPS bridge

0.45 → 0.36

Residual

-2.0%

EPS growth-20.0%
Multiple rerating+10.2%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.