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603976.SS$21.40-1.65%
Fair $21.40+0.0%

603976.SS

ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShanghai

$21.40

-0.36 (-1.65%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $21.40Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 50/C
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $104.2M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

50/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 1.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603976.SSLocal privado en este navegador · ChongQing Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.2B

P/E

194.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

21.8x

↑

ROE

1.6%

↓

Gross Margin

18.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.37

↓
52-Week Range$21
$17$26

TradingView lightweight chart

603976.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $21.40Periodo +45.3%
Fair value: $21.40

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

16.5%

FCF / Net income

5.79x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $664.4M · net income $18.9M · FCF $109.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.3%-2.7% pts

Operating margin

7.2%-3.5% pts

Net margin

2.8%-5.3% pts

FCF margin

16.5%+46.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$664.4M$664.4M$801.1M$900.6M$796.2M
Net Income$18.9M$18.9M$53.2M$40.3M$64.8M
EBITDA$148.0M$148.0M$195.8M$171.8M$164.6M
EPS0.130.130.350.270.43
Gross Margin18.3%18.3%20.7%16.0%20.9%
Operating Margin7.2%7.2%11.7%6.6%10.7%
Net Margin2.8%2.8%6.6%4.5%8.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.370.370.350.370.39
Current Ratio4.364.36———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$109.4M$109.4M$40.2M$104.2M$-237.7M
Returns
ROE1.6%1.6%4.4%3.3%5.5%
Valuation
P/E194.55194.5543.6674.1548.60
EV/EBITDA21.8421.8413.5318.8920.63
P/B2.582.581.902.462.66
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-17.1%-17.1%-11.1%13.1%—
EPS Growth-62.9%-62.9%29.6%-37.2%—
Dividend Yield1.3%1.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

144.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.90

Spread vs growth

-207.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

77.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.30

Spread vs growth

-140.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

39.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.70

Spread vs growth

-102.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +21.4%

Total return

+21.4%

Start / end P/E

50.9x → 164.6x

EPS bridge

0.35 → 0.13

Residual

-140.4%

EPS growth-62.9%
Multiple rerating+223.3%
Dividend+1.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-140.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.