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605018.SS$14.37+3.75%
Fair $14.37+0.0%

605018.SS

Changhua Holding Group Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShanghai

$14.37

+0.52 (+3.75%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.37Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $82.7M · quality 44.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 3.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 605018.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Changhua Holding Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.8B

P/E

65.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

26.5x

↑

ROE

3.4%

↓

Gross Margin

13.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$14
$10$15

TradingView lightweight chart

605018.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.37Periodo +2.6%
Fair value: $14.37

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.8%

FCF / Net income

0.87x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.16B · net income $95.2M · FCF $82.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.6%-1.4% pts

Operating margin

4.1%-0.7% pts

Net margin

4.4%-1.5% pts

FCF margin

3.8%+23.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.16B$2.16B$2.21B$2.42B$1.84B
Net Income$95.2M$95.2M$113.7M$109.2M$109.5M
EBITDA$249.3M$249.3M$265.6M$229.1M$219.7M
EPS0.200.200.240.230.24
Gross Margin13.6%13.6%13.5%12.8%15.0%
Operating Margin4.1%4.1%4.6%4.3%4.7%
Net Margin4.4%4.4%5.2%4.5%6.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.020.070.08
Current Ratio2.412.41———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$82.7M$82.7M$144.5M$-130.2M$-365.3M
Returns
ROE3.4%3.4%4.2%4.0%4.2%
Valuation
P/E65.3265.3234.5047.2644.46
EV/EBITDA26.4826.4814.0422.4521.27
P/B2.472.471.441.901.85
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.3%-2.3%-8.9%32.0%—
EPS Growth-16.7%-16.7%4.3%-4.2%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

85.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.28

Spread vs growth

-102.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

50.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.54

Spread vs growth

-67.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

28.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.48

Spread vs growth

-45.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +25.6%

Total return

+25.6%

Start / end P/E

48.1x → 71.8x

EPS bridge

0.24 → 0.20

Residual

-8.2%

EPS growth-16.7%
Multiple rerating+49.4%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-8.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.