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605259.SS$19.28-0.77%
Fair $19.28+0.0%

605259.SS

Lutian Machinery Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShanghai

$19.28

-0.15 (-0.77%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $19.28Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 66/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $91.6M · quality 64.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 59/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

66/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 605259.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Lutian Machinery Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.3B

P/E

14.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.6x

↓

ROE

13.3%

↑

Gross Margin

20.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$19
$18$30

TradingView lightweight chart

605259.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $19.28Periodo -3.2%
Fair value: $19.28

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+15.9%

FCF CAGR

-27.3%

FCF margin

3.6%

FCF / Net income

0.37x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.52B · net income $245.5M · FCF $91.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.3%-0.9% pts

Operating margin

10.5%-1.8% pts

Net margin

9.7%-3.6% pts

FCF margin

3.6%-11.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.52B$2.52B$2.25B$1.63B$1.62B
Net Income$245.5M$245.5M$186.1M$179.9M$215.0M
EBITDA$317.3M$317.3M$258.0M$247.8M$276.4M
EPS1.421.421.081.041.25
Gross Margin20.3%20.3%18.0%21.9%21.2%
Operating Margin10.5%10.5%8.9%11.6%12.3%
Net Margin9.7%9.7%8.3%11.1%13.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.000.00—
Current Ratio2.352.35———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$91.6M$91.6M$69.5M$141.6M$238.3M
Returns
ROE13.3%13.3%11.0%11.4%14.5%
Valuation
P/E14.2814.2813.6615.8715.20
EV/EBITDA7.607.606.027.588.44
P/B1.811.811.501.822.21
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.2%12.2%38.3%0.5%—
EPS Growth31.5%31.5%3.8%-16.8%—
Dividend Yield3.1%3.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.71

Spread vs growth

25.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.07

Spread vs growth

23.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.33

Spread vs growth

22.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +3.9%

Total return

+3.9%

Start / end P/E

17.7x → 13.6x

EPS bridge

1.08 → 1.42

Residual

-7.4%

EPS growth+31.5%
Multiple rerating-23.3%
Dividend+3.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.