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v0.1
605500.SS$7.71-8.99%
Fair $7.71+0.0%

605500.SS

Forest Packaging Group Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShanghai

$7.71

-0.80 (-8.99%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.71Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-578.0M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 2.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 605500.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Forest Packaging Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.2B

P/E

128.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

26.0x

↑

ROE

2.4%

↓

Gross Margin

6.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.43

↓
52-Week Range$8
$7$15

TradingView lightweight chart

605500.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.100Periodo -38.6%
Fair value: $7.710

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-20.7%

FCF / Net income

-9.44x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.79B · net income $61.2M · FCF $-578.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

6.2%-3.2% pts

Operating margin

0.5%-4.5% pts

Net margin

2.2%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

-20.7%-18.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.79B$2.79B$2.36B$2.33B$2.70B
Net Income$61.2M$61.2M$193.4M$157.4M$140.6M
EBITDA$157.0M$157.0M$292.6M$266.3M$258.6M
EPS0.150.150.470.380.34
Gross Margin6.2%6.2%13.9%12.2%9.3%
Operating Margin0.5%0.5%8.0%6.9%5.0%
Net Margin2.2%2.2%8.2%6.8%5.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.430.430.250.05—
Current Ratio1.851.85———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-578.0M$-578.0M$-582.2M$-118.4M$-70.8M
Returns
ROE2.4%2.4%7.5%6.4%6.0%
Valuation
P/E128.50128.5014.2321.3722.10
EV/EBITDA25.9725.9710.8011.2410.37
P/B1.221.221.061.371.33
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth18.2%18.2%1.5%-13.8%—
EPS Growth-68.1%-68.1%23.7%11.8%—
Dividend Yield1.8%1.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

65.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

-133.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

40.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.83

Spread vs growth

-108.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.33

Spread vs growth

-92.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +10.1%

Total return

+10.1%

Start / end P/E

15.9x → 54.0x

EPS bridge

0.47 → 0.15

Residual

-162.9%

EPS growth-68.1%
Multiple rerating+239.3%
Dividend+1.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-162.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.