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6123.HK$1.48+0.68%
Fair $1.48+0.0%

6123.HK

YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited

Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsHKSE

$1.48

+0.01 (+0.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.48Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-93.8M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -14.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 6123.HKLocal privado en este navegador · YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$622M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-14.0%

↓

Gross Margin

6.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.11

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

6123.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.480Periodo +27.6%
Fair value: $1.480

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-21.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.7%

FCF / Net income

0.16x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.19B · net income $-145.6M · FCF $-23.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

6.3%-1.8% pts

Operating margin

-5.2%-6.9% pts

Net margin

-4.6%-6.6% pts

FCF margin

-0.7%-11.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.19B$3.19B$5.32B$5.29B$6.71B
Net Income$-145.6M$-145.6M$-40.8M$96.8M$136.7M
EBITDA$-105.5M$-105.5M$-27000.00$157.5M$189.3M
EPS——-0.100.230.33
Gross Margin6.3%6.3%7.0%9.1%8.1%
Operating Margin-5.2%-5.2%-0.2%2.0%1.7%
Net Margin-4.6%-4.6%-0.8%1.8%2.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.110.110.030.030.03
Current Ratio2.272.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-23.2M$-23.2M$-93.8M$-255.2M$695.1M
Returns
ROE-14.0%-14.0%-3.3%7.5%11.4%
Valuation
P/E———5.577.43
EV/EBITDA———-1.540.31
P/B0.600.600.390.420.85
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-40.0%-40.0%0.6%-21.1%—
EPS Growth——-142.1%-29.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +43.7%

Total return

+43.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.10 → n/d

Residual

+43.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+43.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.