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v0.1
6165.T$556.00+3.15%
Fair $556.00+0.0%

6165.T

Punch Industry Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Tools & AccessoriesTokyo

$556.00

+17.00 (+3.15%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $556.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 62/B
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.1B · quality 72.0/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 64/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

62/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 6165.TLocal privado en este navegador · Punch Industry Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$15.3B

P/E

18.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

4.0x

↓

ROE

3.9%

↓

Gross Margin

26.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$556
$360$579

TradingView lightweight chart

6165.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $556.00Periodo +114.7%
Fair value: $556.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.2%

FCF CAGR

-15.3%

FCF margin

2.8%

FCF / Net income

1.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $40.82B · net income $868.0M · FCF $1.14B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

26.5%-2.6% pts

Operating margin

4.1%-3.6% pts

Net margin

2.1%-3.1% pts

FCF margin

2.8%-2.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$40.82B$40.82B$38.34B$42.80B$39.36B
Net Income$868.0M$868.0M$-577.0M$1.39B$2.04B
EBITDA$2.75B$2.75B$1.16B$3.29B$3.87B
EPS33.6333.63-23.6160.1584.36
Gross Margin26.5%26.5%26.3%27.2%29.1%
Operating Margin4.1%4.1%3.2%5.7%7.7%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%-1.5%3.2%5.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.190.140.21
Current Ratio2.602.60———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.14B$1.14B$363.0M$1.27B$1.87B
Returns
ROE3.9%3.9%-3.1%7.3%12.5%
Valuation
P/E17.9717.97—7.235.74
EV/EBITDA3.983.987.202.302.66
P/B0.650.650.580.530.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.5%6.5%-10.4%8.7%—
EPS Growth242.4%242.4%-139.3%-28.7%—
Dividend Yield3.7%3.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

13.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$49.34

Spread vs growth

228.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

12.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$59.70

Spread vs growth

230.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$96.14

Spread vs growth

231.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +56.9%

Total return

+56.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-23.61 → 33.63

Residual

+53.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+3.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+53.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.