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6533.T$995.00-2.45%
Fair $995.00+0.0%

6533.T

Orchestra Holdings Inc.

Communication Services / Advertising AgenciesTokyo

$995.00

-25.00 (-2.45%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $995.00Fund rank 18/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 14/F
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 12%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.0B · quality 13.7/100

Data gap 18/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

14/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.83, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -7.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 6533.TLocal privado en este navegador · Orchestra Holdings Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.3B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-7.2%

↓

Gross Margin

5.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

3.83

↑
52-Week Range$995
$672$1349

TradingView lightweight chart

6533.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $995.00Periodo +38.2%
Fair value: $995.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-50.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

—

FCF / Net income

—

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.29B · net income $-86.3M · FCF —

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

5.8%-43.3% pts

Operating margin

5.8%-7.2% pts

Net margin

-6.7%-14.9% pts

FCF margin

—— pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.29B$1.29B$1.15B$12.11B$10.38B
Net Income$-86.3M$-86.3M$-271.3M$474.2M$853.7M
EBITDA$-10.1M$-10.1M$302.5M$1.40B$1.72B
EPS——-27.6447.8185.40
Gross Margin5.8%5.8%5.0%48.5%49.2%
Operating Margin5.8%5.8%5.0%6.1%13.0%
Net Margin-6.7%-6.7%-23.6%3.9%8.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.833.831.800.530.32
Current Ratio1.381.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow——$1.09B$972.4M$-533.7M
Returns
ROE-7.2%-7.2%-16.5%8.4%16.0%
Valuation
P/E———21.9621.01
EV/EBITDA——34.997.309.65
P/B7.827.824.701.853.36
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.9%11.9%-90.5%16.7%—
EPS Growth——-157.8%-44.0%—
Dividend Yield1.3%1.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +26.1%

Total return

+26.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-27.64 → n/d

Residual

+24.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+24.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.