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6819.T$462.00-1.07%
Fair $462.00+0.0%

6819.T

Izu Shaboten Resort Co.,Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / LeisureTokyo

$462.00

-5.00 (-1.07%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $462.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 62/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $652.6M · quality 74.7/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 72/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

62/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 6819.TLocal privado en este navegador · Izu Shaboten Resort Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.5B

P/E

10.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.9x

↓

ROE

15.7%

↑

Gross Margin

79.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$462
$440$523

TradingView lightweight chart

6819.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $462.00Periodo -99.9%
Fair value: $462.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+31.6%

FCF CAGR

+81.9%

FCF margin

12.7%

FCF / Net income

0.77x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.49B · net income $906.9M · FCF $695.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

79.8%+3.7% pts

Operating margin

21.7%+13.7% pts

Net margin

16.5%+8.4% pts

FCF margin

12.7%+7.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.49B$5.49B$4.65B$3.39B$2.41B
Net Income$906.9M$906.9M$323.3M$477.0M$194.4M
EBITDA$1.75B$1.75B$1.07B$873.5M$441.0M
EPS49.0149.0117.5233.46—
Gross Margin79.8%79.8%80.6%79.8%76.1%
Operating Margin21.7%21.7%19.4%19.0%8.0%
Net Margin16.5%16.5%7.0%14.1%8.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.160.240.14
Current Ratio4.194.19———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$695.7M$695.7M$544.1M$652.6M$115.7M
Returns
ROE15.7%15.7%6.5%14.6%7.0%
Valuation
P/E10.2410.2424.1410.88—
EV/EBITDA3.923.926.224.655.26
P/B1.481.481.581.581.03
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth18.1%18.1%37.1%40.8%—
EPS Growth179.7%179.7%-47.6%——
Dividend Yield4.3%4.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$40.99

Spread vs growth

185.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$49.60

Spread vs growth

179.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$79.89

Spread vs growth

174.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +0.1%

Total return

+0.1%

Start / end P/E

27.5x → 9.4x

EPS bridge

17.52 → 49.01

Residual

-118.2%

EPS growth+179.7%
Multiple rerating-65.7%
Dividend+4.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-118.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.