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6829.HK$2.22+4.39%
Fair $2.22+0.0%

6829.HK

Dragon Rise Group Holdings Limited

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionHKSE

$2.22

+0.10 (+4.39%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.22Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-19.2M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 2.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 6829.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Dragon Rise Group Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$639M

P/E

74.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.5x

↑

ROE

2.8%

↓

Gross Margin

3.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.12

↓
52-Week Range$2
$1$3

TradingView lightweight chart

6829.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.380Periodo -10.0%
Fair value: $2.220

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+28.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.7%

FCF / Net income

-5.42x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.31B · net income $9.0M · FCF $-48.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

3.7%+0.5% pts

Operating margin

0.9%+0.7% pts

Net margin

0.7%-0.5% pts

FCF margin

-3.7%-14.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.31B$1.31B$945.9M$786.2M$613.6M
Net Income$9.0M$9.0M$4.2M$7.9M$7.4M
EBITDA$25.6M$25.6M$26.2M$30.9M$21.3M
EPS0.040.040.020.040.04
Gross Margin3.7%3.7%4.2%3.1%3.2%
Operating Margin0.9%0.9%0.8%1.3%0.2%
Net Margin0.7%0.7%0.4%1.0%1.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.120.120.230.010.03
Current Ratio2.882.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-48.9M$-48.9M$-18.4M$-19.2M$63.1M
Returns
ROE2.8%2.8%1.6%3.0%2.9%
Valuation
P/E74.0074.0039.1427.5837.10
EV/EBITDA17.5417.543.524.888.63
P/B1.581.580.610.831.08
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth38.9%38.9%20.3%28.1%—
EPS Growth78.5%78.5%-47.0%6.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

70.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.20

Spread vs growth

8.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.24

Spread vs growth

35.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.38

Spread vs growth

53.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +32.2%

Total return

+32.2%

Start / end P/E

80.7x → 59.8x

EPS bridge

0.02 → 0.04

Residual

-20.4%

EPS growth+78.5%
Multiple rerating-25.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-20.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.