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6838.T$2283.00-0.13%
Fair $2283.00+0.0%

6838.T

Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd.

Industrials / ConglomeratesTokyo

$2283.00

-3.00 (-0.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2283.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.2B · quality 55.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 4.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 6838.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tamagawa Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$15.6B

P/E

55.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

22.7x

↑

ROE

4.9%

↓

Gross Margin

30.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.68

↑
52-Week Range$2283
$657$2440

TradingView lightweight chart

6838.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,283Periodo -77.2%
Fair value: $2,283

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-11.4%

FCF / Net income

-2.37x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.59B · net income $268.6M · FCF $-636.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.3%+3.6% pts

Operating margin

5.0%-1.1% pts

Net margin

4.8%+2.4% pts

FCF margin

-11.4%-9.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.59B$5.59B$4.15B$3.29B$6.24B
Net Income$268.6M$268.6M$-443.4M$-482.8M$148.7M
EBITDA$767.3M$767.3M$9.7M$-227.6M$513.8M
EPS40.8440.84-71.02-80.8224.36
Gross Margin30.3%30.3%26.4%27.0%26.7%
Operating Margin5.0%5.0%-5.2%-13.3%6.1%
Net Margin4.8%4.8%-10.7%-14.7%2.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.680.680.660.450.21
Current Ratio2.872.87———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-636.9M$-636.9M$-1.21B$-2.11B$-124.3M
Returns
ROE4.9%4.9%-9.1%-9.7%2.7%
Valuation
P/E55.7955.79——38.18
EV/EBITDA22.6722.67723.18—9.21
P/B2.742.741.020.801.04
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth34.5%34.5%26.1%-47.2%—
EPS Growth157.5%157.5%12.1%-431.8%—
Dividend Yield0.2%0.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

70.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$202.58

Spread vs growth

87.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$245.12

Spread vs growth

114.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$394.77

Spread vs growth

132.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +222.7%

Total return

+222.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-71.02 → 40.84

Residual

+222.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+222.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.