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v0.1
688015.SS$17.80-4.66%
Fair $17.80+0.0%

688015.SS

Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd.

Technology / Communication EquipmentShanghai

$17.80

-0.87 (-4.66%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $17.80Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $67.1M · quality 47.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 688015.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.4B

P/E

21.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.8x

↓

ROE

5.9%

↑

Gross Margin

35.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$18
$18$28

TradingView lightweight chart

688015.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $17.80Periodo -58.8%
Fair value: $17.80

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.53B · net income $156.4M · FCF $-53.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

35.6%-2.3% pts

Operating margin

12.6%-1.2% pts

Net margin

6.2%-3.1% pts

FCF margin

-2.1%+11.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.53B$2.53B$2.19B$1.99B$2.47B
Net Income$156.4M$156.4M$83.6M$89.0M$229.5M
EBITDA$375.9M$375.9M$267.8M$242.3M$376.2M
EPS0.830.830.440.471.21
Gross Margin35.6%35.6%31.7%34.0%37.9%
Operating Margin12.6%12.6%7.1%6.9%13.8%
Net Margin6.2%6.2%3.8%4.5%9.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.020.040.04
Current Ratio1.481.48———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-53.7M$-53.7M$301.2M$67.1M$-334.4M
Returns
ROE5.9%5.9%3.3%3.6%9.3%
Valuation
P/E21.4521.4541.7338.6221.79
EV/EBITDA5.775.777.498.6010.50
P/B1.261.261.371.382.03
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth15.8%15.8%9.6%-19.2%—
EPS Growth88.6%88.6%-6.4%-61.2%—
Dividend Yield2.3%2.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

23.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.58

Spread vs growth

64.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

18.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.91

Spread vs growth

70.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.08

Spread vs growth

74.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.4%

Total return

-10.4%

Start / end P/E

46.3x → 21.4x

EPS bridge

0.44 → 0.83

Residual

-47.6%

EPS growth+88.6%
Multiple rerating-53.7%
Dividend+2.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-47.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.