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688202.SS$56.09-2.79%
Fair $56.09+0.0%

688202.SS

Shanghai Medicilon Inc.

Healthcare / BiotechnologyShanghai

$56.09

-1.61 (-2.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $56.09Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 23/D
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-133.1M · quality 53.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

23/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific biotech pipeline model required: targets are disabled until product, probability, peak-sales and cash-runway data exists. ROE is -8.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 688202.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Medicilon Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.5B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-8.7%

↓

Gross Margin

17.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.13

↓
52-Week Range$56
$30$85

TradingView lightweight chart

688202.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $56.09Periodo +54.8%
Fair value: $56.09

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-11.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

3.1%

FCF / Net income

-0.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.16B · net income $-167.8M · FCF $36.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.4%-23.4% pts

Operating margin

-8.4%-31.4% pts

Net margin

-14.4%-34.8% pts

FCF margin

3.1%+28.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.16B$1.16B$1.04B$1.37B$1.66B
Net Income$-167.8M$-167.8M$-330.8M$-33.2M$338.2M
EBITDA$-65.0M$-65.0M$-261.4M$54.2M$452.2M
EPS-1.27-1.27-2.47-0.262.78
Gross Margin17.4%17.4%6.3%23.8%40.8%
Operating Margin-8.4%-8.4%-20.9%0.4%23.0%
Net Margin-14.4%-14.4%-31.9%-2.4%20.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.130.130.160.150.17
Current Ratio1.931.93———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$36.1M$36.1M$-133.1M$-152.4M$-425.4M
Returns
ROE-8.7%-8.7%-15.5%-1.3%21.1%
Valuation
P/E————58.60
EV/EBITDA———151.6944.01
P/B3.833.831.763.3112.37
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.1%12.1%-24.0%-17.7%—
EPS Growth48.6%48.6%-850.0%-109.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +79.1%

Total return

+79.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-2.47 → -1.27

Residual

+79.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+79.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.