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7781.T$1393.00-0.78%
Fair $1393.00+0.0%

7781.T

HIRAYAMA HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Staffing & Employment ServicesTokyo

$1393.00

-11.00 (-0.78%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1393.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 68/B
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $504.7M · quality 64.0/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 60/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

68/100

B

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 7781.TLocal privado en este navegador · HIRAYAMA HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.7B

P/E

10.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

17.0%

↑

Gross Margin

16.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.37

↑
52-Week Range$1393
$1015$1634

TradingView lightweight chart

7781.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,393Periodo +128.4%
Fair value: $1,393

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+15.3%

FCF CAGR

+1.4%

FCF margin

2.5%

FCF / Net income

1.17x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $35.29B · net income $757.1M · FCF $882.9M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

16.9%-0.5% pts

Operating margin

3.2%+0.9% pts

Net margin

2.1%+0.4% pts

FCF margin

2.5%-1.2% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$35.29B$35.29B$31.67B$27.98B$23.04B
Net Income$757.1M$757.1M$549.1M$409.4M$413.5M
EBITDA$1.26B$1.26B$1.00B$799.5M$768.6M
EPS98.8698.8671.9654.79—
Gross Margin16.9%16.9%16.5%17.2%17.4%
Operating Margin3.2%3.2%2.8%2.5%2.3%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%1.7%1.5%1.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.370.370.210.060.18
Current Ratio2.332.33———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$882.9M$882.9M$504.7M$63.9M$847.1M
Returns
ROE17.0%17.0%13.8%11.4%13.0%
Valuation
P/E10.2610.2612.2011.64—
EV/EBITDA5.065.063.201.971.81
P/B2.392.391.681.331.48
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.4%11.4%13.2%21.4%—
EPS Growth37.4%37.4%31.3%——
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

7.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$123.61

Spread vs growth

29.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$149.56

Spread vs growth

28.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$240.87

Spread vs growth

28.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +39.9%

Total return

+39.9%

Start / end P/E

14.2x → 14.1x

EPS bridge

71.96 → 98.86

Residual

-0.4%

EPS growth+37.4%
Multiple rerating-1.1%
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.