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7806.T$6930.00-6.85%
Fair $6930.00+0.0%

7806.T

MTG Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Household & Personal ProductsTokyo

$6930.00

-510.00 (-6.85%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6930.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 68/B
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-2.7B · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

68/100

B

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 7806.TLocal privado en este navegador · MTG Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$272.6B

P/E

24.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

22.6x

↑

ROE

15.6%

↑

Gross Margin

62.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$6930
$3315$7600

TradingView lightweight chart

7806.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6,930Periodo -5.7%
Fair value: $6,930

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+26.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.7%

FCF / Net income

-0.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $98.81B · net income $7.93B · FCF $-2.66B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

62.8%-1.4% pts

Operating margin

10.8%+4.2% pts

Net margin

8.0%+2.5% pts

FCF margin

-2.7%-4.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$98.81B$98.81B$71.86B$60.15B$48.98B
Net Income$7.93B$7.93B$2.28B$1.98B$2.69B
EBITDA$11.83B$11.83B$4.89B$3.85B$4.49B
EPS199.97199.9757.4150.1368.22
Gross Margin62.8%62.8%60.0%61.3%64.2%
Operating Margin10.8%10.8%4.6%6.0%6.6%
Net Margin8.0%8.0%3.2%3.3%5.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.00——
Current Ratio2.452.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-2.66B$-2.66B$-3.23B$1.24B$874.0M
Returns
ROE15.6%15.6%5.1%4.7%6.6%
Valuation
P/E24.9024.9026.5129.0816.95
EV/EBITDA22.5922.599.7310.816.46
P/B5.395.391.361.381.11
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth37.5%37.5%19.5%22.8%—
EPS Growth248.3%248.3%14.5%-26.5%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

45.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$614.92

Spread vs growth

202.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

30.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$744.06

Spread vs growth

218.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1198.31

Spread vs growth

228.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +109.0%

Total return

+109.0%

Start / end P/E

58.0x → 34.7x

EPS bridge

57.41 → 199.97

Residual

-100.0%

EPS growth+248.3%
Multiple rerating-40.3%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-100.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.