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7809.T$1345.00-0.59%
Fair $1345.00+0.0%

7809.T

Kotobukiya Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / LeisureTokyo

$1345.00

-8.00 (-0.59%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1345.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $405.3M · quality 53.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 7809.TLocal privado en este navegador · Kotobukiya Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.9B

P/E

7.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.9x

↓

ROE

15.3%

↑

Gross Margin

31.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.42

↓
52-Week Range$1345
$1304$1831

TradingView lightweight chart

7809.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,345Periodo +44.1%
Fair value: $1,345

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+19.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.14x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $16.38B · net income $1.10B · FCF $-151.2M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

31.7%-8.0% pts

Operating margin

10.1%-0.2% pts

Net margin

6.7%-0.4% pts

FCF margin

-0.9%-9.0% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$16.38B$16.38B$18.10B$14.29B$9.54B
Net Income$1.10B$1.10B$1.76B$1.62B$679.9M
EBITDA$2.77B$2.77B$3.53B$3.13B$1.75B
EPS137.46137.46218.92202.34—
Gross Margin31.7%31.7%34.5%39.3%39.7%
Operating Margin10.1%10.1%14.4%16.4%10.3%
Net Margin6.7%6.7%9.7%11.3%7.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.420.420.450.731.10
Current Ratio3.343.34———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-151.2M$-151.2M$2.08B$405.3M$772.8M
Returns
ROE15.3%15.3%27.7%33.9%21.0%
Valuation
P/E7.937.9311.958.63—
EV/EBITDA3.943.945.854.954.27
P/B1.501.503.312.931.78
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.5%-9.5%26.6%49.8%—
EPS Growth-37.2%-37.2%8.2%——
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$119.35

Spread vs growth

-32.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

1.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$144.41

Spread vs growth

-38.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$232.57

Spread vs growth

-42.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.7%

Total return

-7.7%

Start / end P/E

6.9x → 9.8x

EPS bridge

218.92 → 137.46

Residual

-15.5%

EPS growth-37.2%
Multiple rerating+41.7%
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.