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7868.T$618.00+5.90%
Fair $618.00+0.0%

7868.T

KOSAIDO Holdings Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Business ServicesTokyo

$618.00

+35.00 (+5.90%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $618.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.4B · quality 48.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 7868.TLocal privado en este navegador · KOSAIDO Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$91.4B

P/E

19.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.4x

↑

ROE

9.3%

↑

Gross Margin

42.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.47

↑
52-Week Range$618
$410$753

TradingView lightweight chart

7868.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $628.00Periodo +220.4%
Fair value: $618.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-28.0%

FCF / Net income

-2.40x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $38.30B · net income $4.46B · FCF $-10.73B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

42.2%+11.4% pts

Operating margin

21.7%+11.1% pts

Net margin

11.6%+1.3% pts

FCF margin

-28.0%-35.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$38.30B$38.30B$35.46B$36.67B$35.36B
Net Income$4.46B$4.46B$4.34B$4.04B$3.64B
EBITDA$9.30B$9.30B$8.40B$6.22B$5.90B
EPS28.9228.9229.2227.0529.81
Gross Margin42.2%42.2%38.0%33.5%30.7%
Operating Margin21.7%21.7%15.0%11.7%10.5%
Net Margin11.6%11.6%12.2%11.0%10.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.470.470.470.570.76
Current Ratio2.972.97———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-10.73B$-10.73B$6.98B$4.42B$2.65B
Returns
ROE9.3%9.3%9.3%9.8%9.7%
Valuation
P/E19.2619.2622.1118.065.59
EV/EBITDA11.4311.4311.7912.504.62
P/B2.002.002.051.770.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.0%8.0%-3.3%3.7%—
EPS Growth-1.0%-1.0%8.0%-9.3%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

23.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$54.84

Spread vs growth

-24.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

18.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$66.35

Spread vs growth

-19.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$106.86

Spread vs growth

-15.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +37.2%

Total return

+37.2%

Start / end P/E

15.9x → 21.7x

EPS bridge

29.22 → 28.92

Residual

-0.4%

EPS growth-1.0%
Multiple rerating+36.5%
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.