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7952.T$3135.00-3.54%
Fair $3135.00+0.0%

7952.T

Kawai Musical Instruments Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / LeisureTokyo

$3135.00

-115.00 (-3.54%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3135.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 1/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-2.1B · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 12/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 7952.TLocal privado en este navegador · Kawai Musical Instruments Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$27.0B

P/E

23.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.8x

↑

ROE

0.9%

↓

Gross Margin

25.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.19

↓
52-Week Range$3135
$2391$3350

TradingView lightweight chart

7952.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,135Periodo +143.0%
Fair value: $3,135

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.2%

FCF / Net income

-11.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $72.92B · net income $405.0M · FCF $-4.54B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.1%-2.3% pts

Operating margin

0.4%-7.4% pts

Net margin

0.6%-5.3% pts

FCF margin

-6.2%-10.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$72.92B$72.92B$80.19B$87.77B$85.70B
Net Income$405.0M$405.0M$2.78B$3.67B$5.05B
EBITDA$2.27B$2.27B$5.89B$7.35B$8.92B
EPS47.1347.13323.72427.33587.17
Gross Margin25.1%25.1%25.8%26.0%27.4%
Operating Margin0.4%0.4%4.1%5.8%7.8%
Net Margin0.6%0.6%3.5%4.2%5.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.190.190.190.230.31
Current Ratio2.392.39———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-4.54B$-4.54B$102.0M$-2.06B$4.02B
Returns
ROE0.9%0.9%6.5%9.6%15.1%
Valuation
P/E23.6423.6410.956.995.16
EV/EBITDA9.769.763.452.081.53
P/B0.610.610.710.670.78
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.1%-9.1%-8.6%2.4%—
EPS Growth-85.4%-85.4%-24.2%-27.2%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

80.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$278.18

Spread vs growth

-166.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

48.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$336.60

Spread vs growth

-133.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

27.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$542.09

Spread vs growth

-113.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +25.2%

Total return

+25.2%

Start / end P/E

7.9x → 66.5x

EPS bridge

323.72 → 47.13

Residual

-632.4%

EPS growth-85.4%
Multiple rerating+740.2%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-632.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.