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8254.T$210.00+0.00%
Fair $210.00+0.0%

8254.T

Saikaya Department Store Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Department StoresTokyo

$210.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $210.00Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 14/F
F-Score: 5/9
High DebtDeclining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 10%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-48.9M · quality 21.0/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

14/100

F

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 10.93, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 8254.TLocal privado en este navegador · Saikaya Department Store Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.3B

P/E

31.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.4x

↑

ROE

13.9%

↑

Gross Margin

49.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

10.93

↑
52-Week Range$210
$207$655

TradingView lightweight chart

8254.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $210.00Periodo -95.0%
Fair value: $210.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-30.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.81x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.63B · net income $110.3M · FCF $-89.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

49.5%+29.1% pts

Operating margin

2.5%+5.0% pts

Net margin

2.4%+6.1% pts

FCF margin

-1.9%+5.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.63B$4.63B$4.95B$5.20B$13.81B
Net Income$110.3M$110.3M$72.7M$9.7M$-509.7M
EBITDA$537.3M$537.3M$445.7M$378.4M$-82.1M
EPS16.6516.65—1.51-109.64
Gross Margin49.5%49.5%51.7%60.0%20.4%
Operating Margin2.5%2.5%2.2%2.8%-2.5%
Net Margin2.4%2.4%1.5%0.2%-3.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity10.9310.9314.0215.0219.97
Current Ratio0.230.23———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-89.3M$-89.3M$-48.9M$295.9M$-1.08B
Returns
ROE13.9%13.9%11.8%1.7%-117.5%
Valuation
P/E31.7231.72—245.03—
EV/EBITDA15.3715.3721.6923.01—
P/B1.311.314.313.182.53
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.4%-6.4%-4.9%-62.3%—
EPS Growth———101.4%—
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

3.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$18.63

Spread vs growth

-10.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$22.55

Spread vs growth

-12.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$36.31

Spread vs growth

-14.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -47.4%

Total return

-47.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

n/d → 16.65

Residual

-49.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-49.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.