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v0.1
8281.HK$0.25-0.80%
Fair $0.25+0.0%

8281.HK

China Golden Classic Group Limited

Consumer Defensive / Household & Personal ProductsHKSE

$0.25

-0.00 (-0.80%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.25Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 64/B
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $13.2M · quality 75.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 68/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

64/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8281.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Golden Classic Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$248M

P/E

24.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

3.8%

↓

Gross Margin

37.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$0
$0$0

TradingView lightweight chart

8281.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.248Periodo -37.2%
Fair value: $0.248

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.2%

FCF CAGR

-0.3%

FCF margin

4.9%

FCF / Net income

1.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $268.6M · net income $10.2M · FCF $13.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

37.7%+0.2% pts

Operating margin

3.1%-0.1% pts

Net margin

3.8%-0.7% pts

FCF margin

4.9%-0.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$268.6M$268.6M$261.3M$292.0M$270.5M
Net Income$10.2M$10.2M$3.0M$7.1M$12.2M
EBITDA$31.0M$31.0M$24.9M$30.3M$27.7M
EPS——0.000.010.01
Gross Margin37.7%37.7%34.2%37.5%37.6%
Operating Margin3.1%3.1%-0.3%1.5%3.2%
Net Margin3.8%3.8%1.1%2.4%4.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.030.020.07
Current Ratio2.952.95———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$13.2M$13.2M$2.7M$15.2M$13.3M
Returns
ROE3.8%3.8%1.1%2.7%4.7%
Valuation
P/E24.8024.8036.3328.0315.74
EV/EBITDA5.135.131.434.214.96
P/B0.910.910.420.750.74
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.8%2.8%-10.5%7.9%—
EPS Growth——-57.7%-41.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +300.0%

Total return

+300.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.00 → n/d

Residual

+300.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+300.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.