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8488.TW$10.15+2.53%
Fair $10.15+0.0%

8488.TW

Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTaiwan

$10.15

+0.25 (+2.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.15Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 12/F
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $112.8M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

12/100

F

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -6.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8488.TWLocal privado en este navegador · Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$746M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

22.8x

↑

ROE

-6.4%

↓

Gross Margin

3.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.91

↑
52-Week Range$10
$10$12

TradingView lightweight chart

8488.TW price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.15Periodo -77.8%
Fair value: $10.15

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.2%

FCF / Net income

-0.05x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.08B · net income $-150.7M · FCF $6.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

3.6%-0.4% pts

Operating margin

-4.1%-1.8% pts

Net margin

-4.9%-3.2% pts

FCF margin

0.2%+3.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.08B$3.08B$3.32B$3.83B$3.93B
Net Income$-150.7M$-150.7M$-28.6M$-118.1M$-68.3M
EBITDA$102.2M$102.2M$260.2M$208.7M$192.9M
EPS——-0.39-1.75-1.01
Gross Margin3.6%3.6%4.9%6.1%4.0%
Operating Margin-4.1%-4.1%-2.5%-0.8%-2.3%
Net Margin-4.9%-4.9%-0.9%-3.1%-1.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.910.910.911.041.07
Current Ratio0.930.93———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$6.9M$6.9M$112.8M$556.1M$-130.1M
Returns
ROE-6.4%-6.4%-1.1%-5.0%-2.7%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA22.7822.789.8414.6917.21
P/B0.320.320.400.480.41
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.3%-7.3%-13.3%-2.4%—
EPS Growth——77.7%-72.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.3%

Total return

-14.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.39 → n/d

Residual

-14.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.