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8646.HK$0.26+4.08%
Fair $0.26+0.0%

8646.HK

China Hongguang Holdings Limited

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentHKSE

$0.26

+0.01 (+4.08%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.26Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-10.8M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 10/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 8646.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Hongguang Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$198M

P/E

2.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

2.2x

↓

ROE

12.3%

↑

Gross Margin

30.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.11

↓
52-Week Range$0
$0$0

TradingView lightweight chart

8646.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.255Periodo -67.7%
Fair value: $0.255

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $242.6M · net income $57.0M · FCF $-10.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.5%-0.7% pts

Operating margin

28.1%+7.2% pts

Net margin

23.5%+7.0% pts

FCF margin

-4.5%+23.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$242.6M$242.6M$242.2M$217.1M$208.7M
Net Income$57.0M$57.0M$21.1M$35.7M$34.6M
EBITDA$74.8M$74.8M$37.5M$53.7M$53.4M
EPS——0.050.080.10
Gross Margin30.5%30.5%26.1%29.4%31.2%
Operating Margin28.1%28.1%11.3%20.1%20.8%
Net Margin23.5%23.5%8.7%16.5%16.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.110.110.210.250.30
Current Ratio5.005.00———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-10.8M$-10.8M$12.2M$-16.4M$-57.9M
Returns
ROE12.3%12.3%6.2%11.2%12.8%
Valuation
P/E2.322.326.732.825.40
EV/EBITDA2.232.235.913.314.64
P/B0.320.320.440.310.67
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.2%0.2%11.5%4.1%—
EPS Growth——-40.2%-18.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.0%

Total return

-19.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.05 → n/d

Residual

-19.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.