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8769.T$489.00+0.00%
Fair $489.00+0.0%

8769.T

Advantage Risk Management Co., Ltd.

Healthcare / Medical Care FacilitiesTokyo

$489.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $489.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 55/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $415.8M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

55/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 8769.TLocal privado en este navegador · Advantage Risk Management Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.7B

P/E

11.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.0x

↓

ROE

18.8%

↑

Gross Margin

69.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.50

↑
52-Week Range$489
$451$693

TradingView lightweight chart

8769.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $489.00Periodo +4.0%
Fair value: $489.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

11.4%

FCF / Net income

1.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.55B · net income $744.4M · FCF $972.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

69.1%-4.7% pts

Operating margin

12.0%+5.9% pts

Net margin

8.7%+5.2% pts

FCF margin

11.4%+18.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.55B$8.55B$7.00B$6.41B$5.79B
Net Income$744.4M$744.4M$505.6M$377.6M$201.8M
EBITDA$1.63B$1.63B$1.41B$1.08B$738.6M
EPS46.1346.1330.3022.6412.07
Gross Margin69.1%69.1%70.5%71.7%73.8%
Operating Margin12.0%12.0%10.4%8.6%6.1%
Net Margin8.7%8.7%7.2%5.9%3.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.500.500.090.050.05
Current Ratio1.431.43———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$972.4M$972.4M$415.8M$77.8M$-383.0M
Returns
ROE18.8%18.8%12.7%10.4%5.9%
Valuation
P/E11.1811.1813.2018.8247.14
EV/EBITDA4.984.983.965.5812.14
P/B1.991.991.681.952.78
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth22.2%22.2%9.3%10.6%—
EPS Growth52.2%52.2%33.8%87.6%—
Dividend Yield3.9%3.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$43.39

Spread vs growth

54.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

2.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$52.50

Spread vs growth

49.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$84.56

Spread vs growth

46.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -13.1%

Total return

-13.1%

Start / end P/E

19.4x → 10.6x

EPS bridge

30.30 → 46.13

Residual

-23.8%

EPS growth+52.2%
Multiple rerating-45.5%
Dividend+3.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.