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8841.T$958.00-3.33%
Fair $958.00+0.0%

8841.T

TOC Co., Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate ServicesTokyo

$958.00

-33.00 (-3.33%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $958.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 13.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8841.TLocal privado en este navegador · TOC Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$84.5B

P/E

36.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.1x

↑

ROE

1.8%

↓

Gross Margin

24.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$958
$651$1184

TradingView lightweight chart

8841.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $958.00Periodo +188.4%
Fair value: $958.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-7.7%

FCF / Net income

-0.57x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $13.15B · net income $1.79B · FCF $-1.01B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.1%-21.3% pts

Operating margin

10.8%-24.4% pts

Net margin

13.6%-5.4% pts

FCF margin

-7.7%-25.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$13.15B$13.15B$13.71B$15.69B$16.34B
Net Income$1.79B$1.79B$5.12B$3.26B$3.11B
EBITDA$4.00B$4.00B$9.04B$6.43B$6.54B
EPS19.3119.3154.6034.28—
Gross Margin24.1%24.1%29.6%37.9%45.4%
Operating Margin10.8%10.8%16.7%27.2%35.2%
Net Margin13.6%13.6%37.4%20.8%19.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.010.020.02
Current Ratio6.026.02———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.01B$-1.01B$1.56B$-746.0M$2.88B
Returns
ROE1.8%1.8%5.0%3.3%3.3%
Valuation
P/E36.3436.3414.3818.00—
EV/EBITDA15.0915.093.974.514.77
P/B0.880.880.720.590.66
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.1%-4.1%-12.6%-4.0%—
EPS Growth-64.6%-64.6%59.3%——
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

63.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$85.01

Spread vs growth

-128.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

39.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$102.86

Spread vs growth

-104.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$165.65

Spread vs growth

-88.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +42.3%

Total return

+42.3%

Start / end P/E

12.4x → 49.6x

EPS bridge

54.60 → 19.31

Residual

-193.6%

EPS growth-64.6%
Multiple rerating+299.5%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-193.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.