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8844.T$1155.00-1.45%
Fair $1155.00+0.0%

8844.T

Cosmos Initia Co., Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate ServicesTokyo

$1155.00

-17.00 (-1.45%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1155.00Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 6/9
High Debt

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 36.0/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.03, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · 8844.TLocal privado en este navegador · Cosmos Initia Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$39.1B

P/E

4.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

11.9x

↓

ROE

10.8%

↑

Gross Margin

21.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.03

↑
52-Week Range$1155
$1055$1512

TradingView lightweight chart

8844.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,155Periodo -80.1%
Fair value: $1,155

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.80x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $129.53B · net income $5.32B · FCF $-4.24B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.1%+4.8% pts

Operating margin

7.3%+4.2% pts

Net margin

4.1%+2.5% pts

FCF margin

-3.3%+7.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$129.53B$129.53B$124.59B$123.37B$107.35B
Net Income$5.32B$5.32B$4.28B$3.52B$1.70B
EBITDA$9.37B$9.37B$7.62B$3.85B$3.24B
EPS157.09157.09126.33104.7850.29
Gross Margin21.1%21.1%19.0%16.3%16.2%
Operating Margin7.3%7.3%6.0%4.0%3.1%
Net Margin4.1%4.1%3.4%2.9%1.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.032.032.202.152.26
Current Ratio2.562.56———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-4.24B$-4.24B$-9.46B$-3.44B$-11.08B
Returns
ROE10.8%10.8%9.6%8.6%4.7%
Valuation
P/E4.754.757.094.798.35
EV/EBITDA11.9011.9012.3418.5519.35
P/B0.790.790.680.410.40
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.0%4.0%1.0%14.9%—
EPS Growth24.3%24.3%20.6%108.4%—
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-13.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$102.49

Spread vs growth

37.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$124.01

Spread vs growth

29.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

2.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$199.72

Spread vs growth

21.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.6%

Total return

-3.6%

Start / end P/E

10.0x → 7.4x

EPS bridge

126.33 → 157.09

Residual

-6.4%

EPS growth+24.3%
Multiple rerating-26.1%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.