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9012.T$2104.00+1.85%
Fair $2104.00+0.0%

9012.T

Chichibu Railway Co., Ltd.

Industrials / RailroadsTokyo

$2104.00

+39.00 (+1.85%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2104.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 8/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $333.4M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 2.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 9012.TLocal privado en este navegador · Chichibu Railway Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.1B

P/E

8.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

19.1x

↑

ROE

2.3%

↓

Gross Margin

29.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.10

↑
52-Week Range$2104
$1991$2250

TradingView lightweight chart

9012.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,149Periodo +34.3%
Fair value: $2,104

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

10.2%

FCF / Net income

4.66x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.28B · net income $115.6M · FCF $538.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.8%+7.3% pts

Operating margin

5.8%+12.4% pts

Net margin

2.2%+3.3% pts

FCF margin

10.2%+26.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.28B$5.28B$4.91B$4.69B$4.35B
Net Income$115.6M$115.6M$92.6M$-5.05B$-47.7M
EBITDA$396.4M$396.4M$414.6M$-5.73B$217.5M
EPS77.8277.8262.32-3397.03-32.12
Gross Margin29.8%29.8%27.2%21.1%22.6%
Operating Margin5.8%5.8%0.3%-7.7%-6.6%
Net Margin2.2%2.2%1.9%-107.6%-1.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.101.101.131.100.55
Current Ratio0.530.53———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$538.3M$538.3M$34.3M$333.4M$-724.2M
Returns
ROE2.3%2.3%1.9%-100.5%-0.5%
Valuation
P/E8.158.1531.77——
EV/EBITDA19.1119.1118.13—37.45
P/B0.620.620.600.680.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.4%7.4%4.8%7.7%—
EPS Growth24.9%24.9%101.8%-10476.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

33.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$186.69

Spread vs growth

-9.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

23.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$225.90

Spread vs growth

1.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$363.82

Spread vs growth

8.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.1%

Total return

+6.1%

Start / end P/E

32.5x → 27.6x

EPS bridge

62.32 → 77.82

Residual

-3.7%

EPS growth+24.9%
Multiple rerating-15.1%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.