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9017.T$1968.00-0.66%
Fair $1968.00+0.0%

9017.T

Niigata Kotsu Co., Ltd.

Industrials / RailroadsTokyo

$1968.00

-13.00 (-0.66%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1968.00Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.6B · quality 65.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 84/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9017.TLocal privado en este navegador · Niigata Kotsu Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.6B

P/E

7.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.5x

↓

ROE

5.7%

↓

Gross Margin

32.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.40

↑
52-Week Range$1968
$1950$2164

TradingView lightweight chart

9017.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,968Periodo -32.4%
Fair value: $1,968

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.5%

FCF CAGR

+15.9%

FCF margin

7.8%

FCF / Net income

1.44x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $20.00B · net income $1.09B · FCF $1.56B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.3%+7.6% pts

Operating margin

10.1%+10.5% pts

Net margin

5.4%+8.4% pts

FCF margin

7.8%+0.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$20.00B$20.00B$19.42B$17.47B$14.44B
Net Income$1.09B$1.09B$1.06B$897.9M$-434.4M
EBITDA$3.33B$3.33B$3.08B$2.86B$1.57B
EPS282.98282.98277.21233.72-113.06
Gross Margin32.3%32.3%30.7%30.3%24.6%
Operating Margin10.1%10.1%8.7%7.9%-0.5%
Net Margin5.4%5.4%5.5%5.1%-3.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.401.401.531.741.88
Current Ratio0.380.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.56B$1.56B$2.06B$1.32B$1.00B
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%5.9%5.3%-2.7%
Valuation
P/E6.956.957.418.66—
EV/EBITDA9.479.4710.7112.1622.89
P/B0.400.400.440.460.47
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.0%3.0%11.2%21.0%—
EPS Growth2.1%2.1%18.6%306.7%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-14.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$174.63

Spread vs growth

16.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$211.30

Spread vs growth

7.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

1.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$340.30

Spread vs growth

0.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.5%

Total return

-3.5%

Start / end P/E

7.4x → 7.0x

EPS bridge

277.21 → 282.98

Residual

-0.1%

EPS growth+2.1%
Multiple rerating-6.0%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.