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v0.1
9049.T$7190.00-1.51%
Fair $7190.00+0.0%

9049.T

Keifuku Electric Railroad Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / RailroadsTokyo

$7190.00

-110.00 (-1.51%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7190.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 27% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $672.0M · quality 53.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 40/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9049.TLocal privado en este navegador · Keifuku Electric Railroad Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$14.3B

P/E

7.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.4x

↓

ROE

14.0%

↑

Gross Margin

16.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.57

↑
52-Week Range$7190
$6500$8300

TradingView lightweight chart

9049.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7,190Periodo +268.7%
Fair value: $7,190

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.6%

FCF CAGR

+7.7%

FCF margin

4.6%

FCF / Net income

0.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $14.46B · net income $1.74B · FCF $672.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.3%+11.1% pts

Operating margin

15.9%+11.6% pts

Net margin

12.0%+6.2% pts

FCF margin

4.6%+0.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$14.46B$14.46B$14.04B$13.32B$11.60B
Net Income$1.74B$1.74B$2.09B$1.22B$673.0M
EBITDA$4.32B$4.32B$4.21B$2.98B$2.49B
EPS873.81873.811051.35615.67339.05
Gross Margin16.3%16.3%14.2%10.3%5.2%
Operating Margin15.9%15.9%13.6%9.7%4.3%
Net Margin12.0%12.0%14.9%9.2%5.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.570.570.690.911.18
Current Ratio1.041.04———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$672.0M$672.0M$-222.0M$879.0M$538.0M
Returns
ROE14.0%14.0%19.5%14.3%9.2%
Valuation
P/E7.797.796.736.078.85
EV/EBITDA4.454.454.634.465.16
P/B1.151.151.310.870.82
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.0%3.0%5.4%14.8%—
EPS Growth-16.9%-16.9%70.8%81.6%—
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-10.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$637.99

Spread vs growth

-6.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$771.97

Spread vs growth

-14.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1243.27

Spread vs growth

-20.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.9%

Total return

+7.9%

Start / end P/E

6.4x → 8.2x

EPS bridge

1051.35 → 873.81

Residual

-4.9%

EPS growth-16.9%
Multiple rerating+29.1%
Dividend+0.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.