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9204.T$406.00-2.17%
Fair $406.00+0.0%

9204.T

Skymark Airlines Inc.

Industrials / Airports & Air ServicesTokyo

$406.00

-9.00 (-2.17%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $406.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.4B · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9204.TLocal privado en este navegador · Skymark Airlines Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$24.4B

P/E

14.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.7x

↓

ROE

7.9%

↑

Gross Margin

8.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.10

↑
52-Week Range$406
$318$532

TradingView lightweight chart

9204.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $406.00Periodo +2.1%
Fair value: $406.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+32.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.3%

FCF / Net income

1.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $108.89B · net income $2.15B · FCF $2.48B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.0%+33.6% pts

Operating margin

1.7%+37.1% pts

Net margin

2.0%+16.2% pts

FCF margin

2.3%+29.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$108.89B$108.89B$104.08B$84.66B$47.15B
Net Income$2.15B$2.15B$3.00B$5.73B$-6.73B
EBITDA$4.15B$4.15B$10.39B$5.37B$-10.09B
EPS36.1436.1449.93111.88-145.78
Gross Margin8.0%8.0%10.3%10.6%-25.6%
Operating Margin1.7%1.7%4.5%4.1%-35.4%
Net Margin2.0%2.0%2.9%6.8%-14.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.101.101.121.333.86
Current Ratio0.790.79———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.48B$2.48B$6.41B$4.42B$-12.85B
Returns
ROE7.9%7.9%10.8%23.9%-72.4%
Valuation
P/E14.9214.9219.5910.06—
EV/EBITDA6.736.736.0512.44—
P/B0.890.892.112.410.17
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.6%4.6%22.9%79.6%—
EPS Growth-27.6%-27.6%-55.4%176.7%—
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$36.03

Spread vs growth

-27.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$43.59

Spread vs growth

-31.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$70.20

Spread vs growth

-34.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -21.1%

Total return

-21.1%

Start / end P/E

10.5x → 11.2x

EPS bridge

49.93 → 36.14

Residual

-1.8%

EPS growth-27.6%
Multiple rerating+6.6%
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.