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9206.T$1920.00+0.00%
Fair $1920.00+0.0%

9206.T

Star Flyer Inc.

Industrials / AirlinesTokyo

$1920.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1920.00Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $174.0M · quality 40.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9206.TLocal privado en este navegador · Star Flyer Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.3B

P/E

56.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

-0.2x

↓

ROE

44.8%

↑

Gross Margin

10.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.73

↑
52-Week Range$1920
$1900$2481

TradingView lightweight chart

9206.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,920Periodo -22.9%
Fair value: $1,920

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+26.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

11.3%

FCF / Net income

2.51x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $42.90B · net income $1.92B · FCF $4.83B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

10.5%+29.3% pts

Operating margin

2.9%+33.5% pts

Net margin

4.5%+28.1% pts

FCF margin

11.3%+36.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$42.90B$42.90B$40.02B$32.27B$21.13B
Net Income$1.92B$1.92B$912.0M$73.0M$-4.99B
EBITDA$2.75B$2.75B$1.90B$279.0M$-3.71B
EPS508.51508.51243.3820.66-1734.98
Gross Margin10.5%10.5%8.1%3.8%-18.8%
Operating Margin2.9%2.9%0.2%-4.1%-30.6%
Net Margin4.5%4.5%2.3%0.2%-23.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.730.731.792.043.64
Current Ratio3.133.13———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.83B$4.83B$174.0M$-74.0M$-5.27B
Returns
ROE44.8%44.8%28.3%4.2%-367.4%
Valuation
P/E56.8256.8211.40121.01—
EV/EBITDA-0.15-0.153.9722.50—
P/B1.691.693.235.025.17
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.2%7.2%24.0%52.7%—
EPS Growth108.9%108.9%1078.0%101.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-30.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$170.37

Spread vs growth

139.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-16.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$206.15

Spread vs growth

125.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$332.00

Spread vs growth

113.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -13.7%

Total return

-13.7%

Start / end P/E

9.1x → 3.8x

EPS bridge

243.38 → 508.51

Residual

-63.9%

EPS growth+108.9%
Multiple rerating-58.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-63.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.