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9254.T$1143.00+0.44%
Fair $1143.00+0.0%

9254.T

Lovable Marketing Group,inc.

Communication Services / Advertising AgenciesTokyo

$1143.00

+5.00 (+0.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1143.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 4/9
High Debt

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 12%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-17.6M · quality 30.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.42, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · 9254.TLocal privado en este navegador · Lovable Marketing Group,inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.8B

P/E

10.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.2x

↓

ROE

31.1%

↑

Gross Margin

48.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

2.42

↑
52-Week Range$1143
$1115$1751

TradingView lightweight chart

9254.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,143Periodo -72.4%
Fair value: $1,143

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+23.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.7%

FCF / Net income

-0.13x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.63B · net income $133.2M · FCF $-17.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

48.3%-10.0% pts

Operating margin

6.1%-8.3% pts

Net margin

5.1%-1.5% pts

FCF margin

-0.7%-17.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.63B$2.63B$2.16B$1.65B$1.39B
Net Income$133.2M$133.2M$72.6M$44.4M$91.2M
EBITDA$219.3M$219.3M$184.8M$94.6M$196.4M
EPS——51.8530.7570.69
Gross Margin48.3%48.3%52.2%53.3%58.3%
Operating Margin6.1%6.1%6.3%4.9%14.4%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%3.4%2.7%6.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.422.423.571.030.93
Current Ratio1.891.89———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-17.6M$-17.6M$256.2M$-232.0M$227.0M
Returns
ROE31.1%31.1%26.8%8.3%20.3%
Valuation
P/E10.8210.8228.3551.3821.52
EV/EBITDA7.237.2311.0322.007.73
P/B3.323.327.614.274.36
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth21.7%21.7%30.7%19.1%—
EPS Growth——68.6%-56.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.3%

Total return

-23.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

51.85 → n/d

Residual

-23.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.