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9306.T$1995.00-1.87%
Fair $1995.00+0.0%

9306.T

Toyo Logistics Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsTokyo

$1995.00

-38.00 (-1.87%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1995.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-748.9M · quality 41.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9306.TLocal privado en este navegador · Toyo Logistics Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$15.0B

P/E

9.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.8x

↓

ROE

5.6%

↓

Gross Margin

7.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.57

↑
52-Week Range$1995
$1505$2166

TradingView lightweight chart

9306.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,995Periodo +106.7%
Fair value: $1,995

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.0%

FCF CAGR

-19.7%

FCF margin

3.4%

FCF / Net income

0.66x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $29.19B · net income $1.50B · FCF $982.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.5%-0.3% pts

Operating margin

4.3%-0.6% pts

Net margin

5.1%+0.0% pts

FCF margin

3.4%-3.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$29.19B$29.19B$27.88B$28.17B$28.37B
Net Income$1.50B$1.50B$1.37B$1.35B$1.44B
EBITDA$3.50B$3.50B$3.19B$3.25B$3.43B
EPS197.66197.66181.38178.51188.95
Gross Margin7.5%7.5%7.3%7.6%7.8%
Operating Margin4.3%4.3%4.1%4.5%4.8%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%4.9%4.8%5.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.570.570.640.700.64
Current Ratio1.551.55———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$982.3M$982.3M$-1.37B$-748.9M$1.90B
Returns
ROE5.6%5.6%5.4%5.8%6.5%
Valuation
P/E9.049.048.367.598.15
EV/EBITDA6.816.816.575.575.35
P/B0.570.570.450.440.53
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.7%4.7%-1.0%-0.7%—
EPS Growth9.0%9.0%1.6%-5.5%—
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-3.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$177.02

Spread vs growth

12.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

1.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$214.20

Spread vs growth

7.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$344.97

Spread vs growth

3.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +36.2%

Total return

+36.2%

Start / end P/E

8.3x → 10.1x

EPS bridge

181.38 → 197.66

Residual

+1.9%

EPS growth+9.0%
Multiple rerating+21.3%
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.