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9445.T$541.00-0.73%
Fair $541.00+0.0%

9445.T

Forval Telecom,Inc.

Communication Services / Telecom ServicesTokyo

$541.00

-4.00 (-0.73%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $541.00Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.0B · quality 62.3/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9445.TLocal privado en este navegador · Forval Telecom,Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.1B

P/E

9.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

22.1%

↑

Gross Margin

23.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$541
$477$600

TradingView lightweight chart

9445.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $541.00Periodo +319.7%
Fair value: $541.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.6%

FCF CAGR

+4.1%

FCF margin

5.9%

FCF / Net income

2.06x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $25.68B · net income $733.0M · FCF $1.51B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.5%-3.8% pts

Operating margin

4.4%-0.5% pts

Net margin

2.9%-1.1% pts

FCF margin

5.9%-0.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$25.68B$25.68B$23.12B$24.75B$21.80B
Net Income$733.0M$733.0M$750.4M$378.4M$868.0M
EBITDA$1.59B$1.59B$1.63B$975.9M$1.66B
EPS43.7443.7444.7822.6052.00
Gross Margin23.5%23.5%25.0%21.2%27.3%
Operating Margin4.4%4.4%4.4%2.3%4.9%
Net Margin2.9%2.9%3.2%1.5%4.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity——0.450.710.93
Current Ratio1.231.23———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.51B$1.51B$1.05B$505.8M$1.34B
Returns
ROE22.1%22.1%25.8%15.5%37.3%
Valuation
P/E9.209.209.2514.516.77
EV/EBITDA5.155.154.446.334.06
P/B2.732.732.392.252.53
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.1%11.1%-6.6%13.5%—
EPS Growth-2.3%-2.3%98.1%-56.5%—
Dividend Yield5.1%5.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

3.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$48.00

Spread vs growth

-5.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$58.09

Spread vs growth

-8.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$93.55

Spread vs growth

-10.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +18.6%

Total return

+18.6%

Start / end P/E

10.7x → 12.4x

EPS bridge

44.78 → 43.74

Residual

-0.4%

EPS growth-2.3%
Multiple rerating+16.1%
Dividend+5.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.