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9551.T$3270.00-2.24%
Fair $3270.00+0.0%

9551.T

METAWATER Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Pollution & Treatment ControlsTokyo

$3270.00

-75.00 (-2.24%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3270.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-6.9B · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 12/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9551.TLocal privado en este navegador · METAWATER Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$143.0B

P/E

15.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

11.2x

↑

ROE

8.4%

↑

Gross Margin

21.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.50

↑
52-Week Range$3270
$2048$4220

TradingView lightweight chart

9551.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,270Periodo +192.0%
Fair value: $3,270

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.7%

FCF CAGR

+33.3%

FCF margin

5.1%

FCF / Net income

1.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $179.09B · net income $6.85B · FCF $9.12B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.6%+0.6% pts

Operating margin

5.9%-0.1% pts

Net margin

3.8%-0.8% pts

FCF margin

5.1%+2.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$179.09B$179.09B$165.56B$150.72B$135.56B
Net Income$6.85B$6.85B$6.88B$6.25B$6.25B
EBITDA$13.08B$13.08B$13.17B$11.20B$10.62B
EPS157.06157.06157.67143.48—
Gross Margin21.6%21.6%20.8%20.1%21.0%
Operating Margin5.9%5.9%6.0%5.8%6.0%
Net Margin3.8%3.8%4.2%4.1%4.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.500.500.370.220.21
Current Ratio2.062.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$9.12B$9.12B$-11.45B$-6.92B$3.85B
Returns
ROE8.4%8.4%9.4%9.6%10.5%
Valuation
P/E15.6415.6414.8212.34—
EV/EBITDA11.2211.228.667.137.50
P/B1.751.751.401.181.49
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth8.2%8.2%9.8%11.2%—
EPS Growth-0.4%-0.4%9.9%——
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

22.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$290.16

Spread vs growth

-23.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$351.09

Spread vs growth

-17.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$565.44

Spread vs growth

-14.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +61.3%

Total return

+61.3%

Start / end P/E

13.1x → 20.8x

EPS bridge

157.67 → 157.06

Residual

-0.2%

EPS growth-0.4%
Multiple rerating+59.5%
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.