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9740.T$2592.00+1.85%
Fair $2592.00+0.0%

9740.T

Central Security Patrols Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Security & Protection ServicesTokyo

$2592.00

+47.00 (+1.85%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2592.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 55/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $334.5M · quality 54.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 40/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

55/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9740.TLocal privado en este navegador · Central Security Patrols Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$36.3B

P/E

14.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

2.8x

↓

ROE

6.1%

↑

Gross Margin

21.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.13

↓
52-Week Range$2592
$2201$3350

TradingView lightweight chart

9740.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,592Periodo +343.1%
Fair value: $2,592

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2023–2026 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.7%

FCF CAGR

-53.8%

FCF margin

0.4%

FCF / Net income

0.13x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $78.75B · net income $2.50B · FCF $334.5M

2023-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

21.6%-0.2% pts

Operating margin

5.7%-0.4% pts

Net margin

3.2%-0.8% pts

FCF margin

0.4%-4.8% pts
MetricTTM
2026
2025
2024
2023
Income Statement
Revenue$78.75B$78.75B$71.42B$68.01B$64.82B
Net Income$2.50B$2.50B$3.23B$5.38B$2.59B
EBITDA$7.68B$7.68B$7.99B$10.88B$6.98B
EPS———368.77177.25
Gross Margin21.6%21.6%22.0%22.7%21.7%
Operating Margin5.7%5.7%6.1%6.3%6.1%
Net Margin3.2%3.2%4.5%7.9%4.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.130.130.090.130.17
Current Ratio1.831.83———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$334.5M$334.5M$58.2M$2.98B$3.40B
Returns
ROE6.1%6.1%8.2%14.4%7.4%
Valuation
P/E14.8214.82—7.0214.60
EV/EBITDA2.782.783.061.593.87
P/B0.880.881.081.011.08
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth10.3%10.3%5.0%4.9%—
EPS Growth———108.1%—
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +9.4%

Total return

+9.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

n/d → n/d

Residual

+7.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+7.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.