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9761.T$2147.00-0.88%
Fair $2147.00+0.0%

9761.T

Tokai Lease Co.,Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate ServicesTokyo

$2147.00

-19.00 (-0.88%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2147.00Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 6/9

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 14.0/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled.
Thesis & Journal · 9761.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tokai Lease Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.4B

P/E

10.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.5x

↓

ROE

6.3%

↑

Gross Margin

21.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.82

↑
52-Week Range$2147
$2051$2739

TradingView lightweight chart

9761.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,147Periodo +36.8%
Fair value: $2,147

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.6%

FCF / Net income

-0.78x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $18.40B · net income $1.07B · FCF $-837.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.5%+4.5% pts

Operating margin

8.2%+4.8% pts

Net margin

5.8%+3.1% pts

FCF margin

-4.6%-6.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$18.40B$18.40B$17.18B$15.74B$16.42B
Net Income$1.07B$1.07B$675.3M$148.5M$438.9M
EBITDA$3.45B$3.45B$2.83B$2.08B$2.46B
EPS309.40309.40195.6343.02127.21
Gross Margin21.5%21.5%19.2%14.6%17.0%
Operating Margin8.2%8.2%5.8%1.8%3.4%
Net Margin5.8%5.8%3.9%0.9%2.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.820.820.770.740.75
Current Ratio1.531.53———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-837.8M$-837.8M$-706.3M$664.3M$348.2M
Returns
ROE6.3%6.3%4.2%1.0%2.9%
Valuation
P/E10.2810.287.0531.0812.30
EV/EBITDA5.455.455.236.425.86
P/B0.440.440.300.300.35
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.1%7.1%9.1%-4.2%—
EPS Growth58.2%58.2%354.7%-66.2%—
Dividend Yield5.5%5.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-14.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$190.51

Spread vs growth

73.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$230.52

Spread vs growth

63.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

1.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$371.25

Spread vs growth

56.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.8%

Total return

+7.8%

Start / end P/E

10.7x → 6.9x

EPS bridge

195.63 → 309.40

Residual

-20.6%

EPS growth+58.2%
Multiple rerating-35.4%
Dividend+5.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-20.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.