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9849.T$4475.00+0.11%
Fair $4475.00+0.0%

9849.T

Kyodo Paper Holdings

Industrials / ConglomeratesTokyo

$4475.00

+5.00 (+0.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4475.00Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 22/D
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $150.7M · quality 27.7/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 10/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

22/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 0.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 9849.TLocal privado en este navegador · Kyodo Paper Holdings
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.0B

P/E

80.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.7x

↑

ROE

0.7%

↓

Gross Margin

11.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$4475
$4420$4750

TradingView lightweight chart

9849.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4,475Periodo -17.6%
Fair value: $4,475

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.7%

FCF / Net income

-10.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $16.89B · net income $28.0M · FCF $-288.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.9%-0.5% pts

Operating margin

-0.1%-0.1% pts

Net margin

0.2%-1.1% pts

FCF margin

-1.7%+1.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$16.89B$16.89B$16.73B$17.02B$14.09B
Net Income$28.0M$28.0M$58.8M$101.2M$171.7M
EBITDA$107.2M$107.2M$211.7M$268.0M$102.3M
EPS41.4541.4587.29151.18256.47
Gross Margin11.9%11.9%13.0%13.1%12.4%
Operating Margin-0.1%-0.1%0.6%0.9%0.0%
Net Margin0.2%0.2%0.4%0.6%1.2%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio1.381.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-288.3M$-288.3M$297.8M$150.7M$-429.3M
Returns
ROE0.7%0.7%1.5%2.6%4.7%
Valuation
P/E80.0080.0054.5329.9618.56
EV/EBITDA20.6820.6810.138.0723.52
P/B0.780.780.810.790.86
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.0%1.0%-1.8%20.9%—
EPS Growth-52.5%-52.5%-42.3%-41.1%—
Dividend Yield2.2%2.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

112.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$397.08

Spread vs growth

-164.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

63.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$480.47

Spread vs growth

-115.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

34.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$773.80

Spread vs growth

-86.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -0.3%

Total return

-0.3%

Start / end P/E

52.6x → 108.0x

EPS bridge

87.29 → 41.45

Residual

-55.3%

EPS growth-52.5%
Multiple rerating+105.3%
Dividend+2.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-55.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.