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9850.T$953.00-0.73%
Fair $953.00+0.0%

9850.T

Gourmet Kineya Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsTokyo

$953.00

-7.00 (-0.73%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $953.00Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $140.4M · quality 30.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9850.TLocal privado en este navegador · Gourmet Kineya Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$21.8B

P/E

96.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.3x

↑

ROE

7.0%

↑

Gross Margin

35.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.51

↑
52-Week Range$953
$928$1034

TradingView lightweight chart

9850.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $953.00Periodo +17.5%
Fair value: $953.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+21.8%

FCF CAGR

-46.2%

FCF margin

0.6%

FCF / Net income

0.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $42.07B · net income $649.2M · FCF $255.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

35.8%+1.7% pts

Operating margin

2.3%+11.9% pts

Net margin

1.5%-0.7% pts

FCF margin

0.6%-6.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$42.07B$42.07B$37.03B$29.89B$23.27B
Net Income$649.2M$649.2M$1.10B$-1.15B$513.9M
EBITDA$1.88B$1.88B$2.37B$229.0M$2.16B
EPS28.3828.3847.93-50.3222.56
Gross Margin35.8%35.8%36.2%36.2%34.1%
Operating Margin2.3%2.3%1.1%-1.3%-9.6%
Net Margin1.5%1.5%3.0%-3.9%2.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.511.512.353.042.66
Current Ratio1.031.03———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$255.3M$255.3M$140.4M$-474.9M$1.63B
Returns
ROE7.0%7.0%12.5%-15.0%5.8%
Valuation
P/E96.3696.3622.64—44.95
EV/EBITDA16.2916.2914.16147.8815.84
P/B2.362.362.843.002.63
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.6%13.6%23.9%28.5%—
EPS Growth-40.8%-40.8%195.3%-323.0%—
Dividend Yield0.7%0.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

43.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$84.56

Spread vs growth

-84.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

29.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$102.32

Spread vs growth

-70.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$164.79

Spread vs growth

-60.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.3%

Total return

-2.3%

Start / end P/E

20.5x → 33.6x

EPS bridge

47.93 → 28.38

Residual

-26.0%

EPS growth-40.8%
Multiple rerating+63.7%
Dividend+0.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-26.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.