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9869.HK$1.27-1.55%
Fair $1.27+0.0%

9869.HK

Helens International Holdings Company Limited

Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsHKSE

$1.27

-0.02 (-1.55%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.27Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $157.3M · quality 51.0/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 9869.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Helens International Holdings Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.6B

P/E

42.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.5x

↑

ROE

3.9%

↓

Gross Margin

39.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

9869.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.270Periodo -94.8%
Fair value: $1.270

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-29.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

23.3%

FCF / Net income

3.70x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $539.0M · net income $34.0M · FCF $125.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

39.1%+5.4% pts

Operating margin

5.0%+56.0% pts

Net margin

6.3%+109.0% pts

FCF margin

23.3%+37.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$539.0M$539.0M$752.2M$1.21B$1.56B
Net Income$34.0M$34.0M$-78.0M$180.5M$-1.60B
EBITDA$117.5M$117.5M$60.9M$379.3M$-1.06B
EPS0.030.03-0.060.14-1.46
Gross Margin39.1%39.1%36.5%47.2%33.7%
Operating Margin5.0%5.0%-3.7%14.0%-51.0%
Net Margin6.3%6.3%-10.4%14.9%-102.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.130.140.41
Current Ratio4.714.71———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$125.6M$125.6M$157.3M$229.5M$-228.3M
Returns
ROE3.9%3.9%-7.0%9.9%-87.8%
Valuation
P/E42.3342.33—24.15—
EV/EBITDA13.5413.5449.3010.48—
P/B1.821.822.672.399.88
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-28.3%-28.3%-37.8%-22.5%—
EPS Growth143.5%143.5%-143.7%109.7%—
Dividend Yield13.8%13.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

61.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.11

Spread vs growth

82.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

38.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.14

Spread vs growth

105.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.22

Spread vs growth

120.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -8.7%

Total return

-8.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.06 → 0.03

Residual

-22.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+13.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-22.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.