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9869.T$5810.00-1.53%
Fair $5810.00+0.0%

9869.T

Kato Sangyo Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Food DistributionTokyo

$5810.00

-90.00 (-1.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5810.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $6.3B · quality 51.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9869.TLocal privado en este navegador · Kato Sangyo Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$175.4B

P/E

12.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.5x

↓

ROE

7.8%

↑

Gross Margin

7.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$5810
$5180$7080

TradingView lightweight chart

9869.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5,810Periodo +837.1%
Fair value: $5,810

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.84x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.21T · net income $13.23B · FCF $-11.11B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.3%+0.3% pts

Operating margin

1.5%+0.2% pts

Net margin

1.1%+0.0% pts

FCF margin

-0.9%-1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1214.26B$1214.26B$1169.83B$1099.39B$1035.66B
Net Income$13.23B$13.23B$14.46B$12.00B$11.28B
EBITDA$27.17B$27.17B$29.57B$23.98B$22.32B
EPS425.71425.71453.05356.94329.95
Gross Margin7.3%7.3%7.1%7.1%6.9%
Operating Margin1.5%1.5%1.4%1.5%1.3%
Net Margin1.1%1.1%1.2%1.1%1.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.090.100.11
Current Ratio1.141.14———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-11.11B$-11.11B$17.14B$6.31B$10.10B
Returns
ROE7.8%7.8%9.3%8.0%8.3%
Valuation
P/E11.9811.989.5210.9310.29
EV/EBITDA4.514.512.082.562.12
P/B1.071.070.880.880.86
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.8%3.8%6.4%6.2%—
EPS Growth-6.0%-6.0%26.9%8.2%—
Dividend Yield2.7%2.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

6.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$515.54

Spread vs growth

-12.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$623.80

Spread vs growth

-14.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1004.64

Spread vs growth

-15.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +12.1%

Total return

+12.1%

Start / end P/E

11.7x → 13.6x

EPS bridge

453.05 → 425.71

Residual

-1.0%

EPS growth-6.0%
Multiple rerating+16.4%
Dividend+2.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.