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9930.HK$0.86+0.00%
Fair $0.86+0.0%

9930.HK

Horizon Construction Development Limited

Industrials / Rental & Leasing ServicesHKSE

$0.86

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.86Fund rank 19/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.0B · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 19/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 1/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 9930.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Horizon Construction Development Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.7B

P/E

14.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.8x

↓

ROE

7.8%

↑

Gross Margin

32.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.88

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

9930.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.860Periodo -73.2%
Fair value: $0.860

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+23.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-28.7%

FCF / Net income

-3.70x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $11.58B · net income $896.3M · FCF $-3.32B

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

32.6%-13.7% pts

Operating margin

16.6%-8.2% pts

Net margin

7.7%-3.8% pts

FCF margin

-28.7%+106.4% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$11.58B$11.58B$9.61B$7.88B$6.14B
Net Income$896.3M$896.3M$962.4M$664.3M$709.6M
EBITDA$4.65B$4.65B$4.50B$4.09B$3.21B
EPS0.280.280.320.210.22
Gross Margin32.6%32.6%39.1%39.8%46.3%
Operating Margin16.6%16.6%21.0%22.5%24.8%
Net Margin7.7%7.7%10.0%8.4%11.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.881.881.683.213.00
Current Ratio1.101.10———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-3.32B$-3.32B$1.52B$-1.01B$-8.30B
Returns
ROE7.8%7.8%8.9%10.0%11.8%
Valuation
P/E14.3314.3314.06——
EV/EBITDA4.854.856.59——
P/B0.240.241.27——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.5%20.5%22.0%28.3%—
EPS Growth-12.5%-12.5%54.0%-6.4%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-35.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.08

Spread vs growth

22.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-19.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.09

Spread vs growth

7.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-6.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.15

Spread vs growth

-6.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -31.0%

Total return

-31.0%

Start / end P/E

4.0x → 3.1x

EPS bridge

0.32 → 0.28

Residual

+2.9%

EPS growth-12.5%
Multiple rerating-23.2%
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+2.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.