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9937.TW$55.80+0.18%
Fair $55.80+0.0%

9937.TW

National Petroleum Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailTaiwan

$55.80

+0.10 (+0.18%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $55.80Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 28/D
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $861.2M · quality 78.7/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 77/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

28/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 9937.TWLocal privado en este navegador · National Petroleum Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$17.2B

P/E

23.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.3x

↑

ROE

12.5%

↑

Gross Margin

12.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.64

↑
52-Week Range$56
$54$68

TradingView lightweight chart

9937.TW price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $55.80Periodo +391.3%
Fair value: $55.80

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.3%

FCF CAGR

-14.3%

FCF margin

3.8%

FCF / Net income

1.18x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $22.54B · net income $730.0M · FCF $861.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.2%+1.6% pts

Operating margin

3.4%+0.3% pts

Net margin

3.2%+0.2% pts

FCF margin

3.8%-1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$22.54B$22.54B$24.03B$24.54B$24.16B
Net Income$730.0M$730.0M$738.1M$783.0M$724.8M
EBITDA$1.54B$1.54B$1.57B$1.60B$1.57B
EPS——2.382.532.34
Gross Margin12.2%12.2%11.5%11.1%10.7%
Operating Margin3.4%3.4%3.2%3.3%3.0%
Net Margin3.2%3.2%3.1%3.2%3.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.640.640.750.750.76
Current Ratio0.470.47———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$861.2M$861.2M$798.0M$1.11B$1.37B
Returns
ROE12.5%12.5%13.0%14.1%13.5%
Valuation
P/E23.7423.7426.8127.6722.31
EV/EBITDA13.3513.3515.0015.6912.40
P/B2.962.963.473.913.03
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.2%-6.2%-2.0%1.5%—
EPS Growth——-5.9%8.1%—
Dividend Yield3.8%3.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.5%

Total return

-7.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

2.38 → n/d

Residual

-11.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+3.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-11.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.