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9948.T$3190.00-1.09%
Fair $3190.00+0.0%

9948.T

ARCS Company Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Department StoresTokyo

$3190.00

-35.00 (-1.09%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3190.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $13.0B · quality 77.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 9948.TLocal privado en este navegador · ARCS Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$170.0B

P/E

13.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.7x

↓

ROE

6.3%

↑

Gross Margin

25.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.15

↓
52-Week Range$3190
$2825$4035

TradingView lightweight chart

9948.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,190Periodo +261.9%
Fair value: $3,190

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2023–2026 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.5%

FCF CAGR

+25.7%

FCF margin

2.9%

FCF / Net income

1.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $626.96B · net income $12.45B · FCF $18.36B

2023-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

25.2%+0.1% pts

Operating margin

2.8%+0.2% pts

Net margin

2.0%+0.2% pts

FCF margin

2.9%+1.3% pts
MetricTTM
2026
2025
2024
2023
Income Statement
Revenue$626.96B$626.96B$608.28B$591.56B$566.21B
Net Income$12.45B$12.45B$11.06B$11.77B$9.95B
EBITDA$28.88B$28.88B$27.02B$27.47B$24.46B
EPS——204.96214.03177.47
Gross Margin25.2%25.2%25.1%25.3%25.0%
Operating Margin2.8%2.8%2.6%2.8%2.6%
Net Margin2.0%2.0%1.8%2.0%1.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.150.150.160.150.16
Current Ratio1.761.76———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$18.36B$18.36B$7.39B$13.01B$9.24B
Returns
ROE6.3%6.3%6.0%6.6%5.8%
Valuation
P/E13.8013.8014.0914.6212.48
EV/EBITDA3.743.743.924.503.23
P/B0.870.870.850.970.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.1%3.1%2.8%4.5%—
EPS Growth——-4.2%20.6%—
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +12.5%

Total return

+12.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

204.96 → n/d

Residual

+10.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+10.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.