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AALI.JK$6825.00+5.41%
Fair $6825.00+0.0%

AALI.JK

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsJakarta

$6825.00

+350.00 (+5.41%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6825.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.4T · quality 57.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · AALI.JKLocal privado en este navegador · PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$13.14T

P/E

8.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.1x

↓

ROE

6.2%

↓

Gross Margin

16.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$6825
$5600$9000

TradingView lightweight chart

AALI.JK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6,825Periodo +1145.7%
Fair value: $6,825

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.5%

FCF CAGR

+95.9%

FCF margin

12.0%

FCF / Net income

2.33x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $28.65T · net income $1.47T · FCF $3.43T

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.2%-1.3% pts

Operating margin

9.1%-2.9% pts

Net margin

5.1%-2.8% pts

FCF margin

12.0%+9.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$28654.65B$28654.65B$21815.03B$20745.47B$21828.59B
Net Income$1471.71B$1471.71B$1147.55B$1055.90B$1726.61B
EBITDA$2531.85B$2531.85B$2127.46B$1919.71B$2934.18B
EPS764.65764.65596.22548.61897.08
Gross Margin16.2%16.2%15.3%13.4%17.5%
Operating Margin9.1%9.1%8.9%7.5%12.0%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%5.3%5.1%7.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity——0.140.180.19
Current Ratio4.004.00———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3428.61B$3428.61B$2438.59B$1302.40B$455.95B
Returns
ROE6.2%6.2%5.1%4.8%8.0%
Valuation
P/E8.388.3810.3612.948.92
EV/EBITDA4.104.105.568.126.08
P/B0.560.560.520.620.71
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth31.4%31.4%5.2%-5.0%—
EPS Growth28.2%28.2%8.7%-38.8%—
Dividend Yield7.1%7.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-7.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$605.61

Spread vs growth

35.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$732.78

Spread vs growth

29.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

4.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1180.15

Spread vs growth

23.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +21.8%

Total return

+21.8%

Start / end P/E

10.0x → 8.9x

EPS bridge

596.22 → 764.65

Residual

-3.0%

EPS growth+28.2%
Multiple rerating-10.6%
Dividend+7.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.